We hate to be the bearers of bad news, but it’s déjà vu all over again with the U.S. elections. The U.S. pollsters have done it once more—they’ve missed the mark in predicting a massive Trump victory in the 2024 presidential election.
After their epic fails in 2016 and 2020, you’d think these highly paid and often disheveled individuals would have learned. But no, here we are, watching them shove those Oxford loafers in their lipstick-stained mouths once again.
As they all whine, squeal, and moan (sounds like a good porn flick), they scramble to explain how they got it so wrong yet again. And we mean BIGLY.
Poll Predictions vs. Reality
Most polls were predicting a photo finish, a nail-biter, a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Kamala Harris. Some even dared to tip the scales in Harris’s favor. Even the Ragin’ Cajun himself, CNN commentator James Carville, said Harris would be a dark horse and destroy Donald Trump.
But surprise, surprise, the Trump train rolled right through every swing state and punted the Democrats into pollster purgatory. Not to mention debt after that disastrous campaign. Is it me, or did they try to buy votes at a very high price?
Well, they lost and Trump owned the votes, leaving pollsters picking their noses and campaign staffers in snowflake tears. It’s the third straight election where the so-called experts underestimated old 45/47.
Iowa: A Political Betting Case Study
Take Iowa, for example. The Des Moines Register, with its supposedly ace pollster J. Ann Selzer, had Harris leading by three points. Wrong. Trump ended up winning with room to spare.
Selzer stood by her numbers, claiming they weren’t fake—just inaccurate this time. Predicting elections is lining right up there with those honorable professionals like ambulance-chasing attorneys and snake oil salesmen.
Criticism of Polling Practices or Polymarket
Historian Rick Perlstein and some other polling pros aren’t happy campers. They’re calling out polling as a compromised game, loaded with assumptions that skew reality.
And you know what? They might be onto something. Maybe it’s time we stopped looking at polls and started, I don’t know, paying attention to things that actually matter like the betting markets?
Betting Markets: A Better Predictor?
Enter the betting markets. While pollsters fumbled, platforms like BetOnline, PredictIt, and Polymarket were getting it right. And it was kind of scary how accurate they were, with Polymarket being the leader of the pack.
These platforms had Trump in the lead before a single ballot was counted. Tarek Mansour from Kalshi and the folks at Polymarket were patting themselves on the back for outsmarting the so-called professionals.
BetOnline’s numbers had Trump with better odds all along, and they were spot on. I even bet on Trump to win 3 months before the election on BetOnline’s platform.
As I watched the odds in combination with Polymarket, I didn’t believe my eyes. Only once did I see Trump’s odds dip about one month before the election, then as the election approached his numbers stayed solid that he would win. I cashed in on that win on election night.
Public Frustration with Pollsters
And then there’s Jon Stewart, angry and rightfully so, who summed up what many of us are thinking. On Election Night, he blasted the pollsters, basically saying, “We’re done with you.” Can you freaking blame him?
When the people who are supposed to guide public expectation consistently and in an unbiased way lead us astray, it’s no wonder we’ve lost trust in institutions and government.
Sadly, the liberal news media fell victim to this long ago and consistently boasted these numbers. Well, they were all wrong, and the election betting markets predicted it with accuracy.
How to Bet on Polymarket Even If You’re in the United States
Anyone reading this message is probably about to get a knock at their door from the FBI. If that happens, I’m really sorry. That sucks. But you’ve got to be smarter than the average bear.
I’m going to start this out by saying, don’t do this. Everything I’m about to tell you is complete bullshit and for entertainment purposes only. I’m not a financial advisor, doctor, or certified pet psychologist, so consult the professionals, okay?
Now, if you’re looking for some sugar, nose candy, or some white girl—we’ve got it. You need that dopamine hit, and you’ll find it in the thrilling world of Polymarket.
What’s not to love about their platform? It’s the place where prediction is an art, and pollsters are sent home crying in shame. Fear not, my friends, the crew at VICESNOB has done the heavy lifting for you and written a guide on how to bet on Polymarket from the U.S.
A guide on how to bet on polymarket
Polymarket takes betting to the next level by incorporating the different aspects of prediction markets for one to make money based on what he or she knows about the future. In its simplest form, one picks a market, purchases shares in the outcome one believes is most likely to happen and waits for the event to take place.
If one’s expectation comes through, the individual earns a return depending on the outcome achieved by the market. If you have been a trader in the past or just engaging in prediction markets combats for the first time, it is apparent that Polymarket is an easy and fun way to make bets and test your abilities.
Click here to get a complete guide on polymarket bet.
But oh, wait, is the USA playing hard to get? No worries! While betting here in the states can feel like hunting for a unicorn with a huge ass and nice boobs, there’s a clever, perfectly legal way around it. Did we say legal?
Remember, while the US might try to keep prediction markets at arm’s length, the crypto in your e-wallet is your magic ticket to unlocking that backdoor action.
Drama Unfolds at Polymarket HQ
Have you been hiding under a rock lately? If so, you might have missed the jaw-dropping news headlines coming out of Polymarket HQ.
It’s been a rollercoaster ride, like a scene straight out of a deep state DOJ thriller. Polymarket’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, the genius behind the election betting platform, found himself in quite the pickle after the U.S. election drama unfolded.
The FBI went knocking at his NYC apartment door. This wasn’t your typical afternoon call. Oh no, they were on a mission to seize his phone and turn his place upside down. And likely peek into his hot girlfriend’s panty drawer and a nightstand or two. Think dildos and butt plugs here, my friends. It makes the boring life of a g-man kinda fun.
All joking aside, you might wonder why all the guns and badges at the door? Well, because election betting on U.S. elections isn’t exactly on Uncle Sam’s approved activities list.
Coplan was involved in allowing U.S. bettors to place wagers on activities that violated federal regulations, leading to a federal raid on his apartment and the seizure of his cell phone.
I know it sounds like some conspiracy, especially since Polymarket predicted the massive win of Donald Trump. Even more strange, it predicted the dropout of the incumbent president Joe Biden approximately 30 days before it happened.
So not that I’m saying “it looks a little strange,” but that’s exactly what I’m saying. So, here’s a tip: while cryptocurrency might open exciting new doors into a Polymarket bet, steer clear of the ones screaming jail time, and you’ll be fine.
The Wrap: Betting Markets vs. Polymarket
So, what’s the takeaway now that the results are in? Perhaps it’s time to consider using betting markets over traditional polls.
With money on the line, there’s a stronger incentive to get predictions right, and the potential for a hefty payout adds to the excitement.
As the election season has wrapped up with Trump winning and Harris losing, maybe it’s time for pollsters to take a page from betting markets. Or start their own podcast on DraftKings Network? Happy betting, VICESNOB!
Frequently Asked Questions
Polymarket helps an individual to earn by allowing them to purchase shares in events that they feel will take place and earn money given they buy the right outcomes. Simply put, when the outcome of the event is in your favor, you will make money with reference to the odds provided in the market.
Polymarket has encountered some legal challenges in the US and had to suspend some markets to comply with the law. For now, its legal standing is conditional upon the laws of individual states, and users should confirm whether it’s allowed in their area.
Polymarket is a platform where users can speculate on the outcomes of future events by purchasing and selling shares. Each market represents a single binary proposition, and trading occurs depending on whether these events occur or not. Users make a profit by correctly anticipating the outcome of an event, increasing the price of their shares, and selling them.
Polymarket does impose a discharge fee while making a withdrawal. Most times it is charging a gas fee when moving the funds to your wallet. The fee differs depending on the blockchain used and also how busy the network is.
In order to earn rewards from Polymarket, you have to bet on the right outcome of the markets. If you successfully placed your bet, you will be entitled to some of the market winnings relative to the amount you wagered. The more accurate your bets are, the more reward you stand to earn.
